Things can't be very happy in the Governor's office right at this very moment. Champagne bottles, which had been intended for purposes of celebration, have been put away and replaced by bottles of vintage bourbon and shot glasses to make easier the writing of press releases explaining why the loss in the 30th district doesn't really matter politically--when, in fact, it does.
The defeat of Scott Alexander by Brandon Smith in the eastern Kentucky Senate district was the first big test of the ability of the Beshear administration exert its influence. It failed, and in a fairly spectacular fashion.
If you're going to lose, it is best to be seen as not having tried very hard, but it was pretty plain to everyone involved in the 30th district race that the Beshear administration tried very hard indeed, with frequent visits by both the Lieutenant Governor (who vacated the seat when he won his new post) and the Governor himself.
They tried hard because it was important to them, despite the fact that they are now saying it was not. Dan Mongiardo, taking a short break from licking his wounds, explained that it was not a setback for the administration at all: “It was a close race,” Mongiardo said in an interview. “Two counties went one way, and two counties went another way.”
Someone please inform the number two man that counties do not get to vote: voters get to vote, and they voted against his candidate, and people in these parts call that a "loss": L-O-S-S.
Even Beshear's chief of staff, Jim Cauley, got in on the disingenuousness. The loss, according to the Courier-Journal, "wasn't a big setback for the administration."
And so why were they trying so hard again?
Beshear had to win two battles to show who was boss: the 30th district race, which was to be a measure of his influence with the electorate, and the gambling initiative, which would be a measure of his influence with the legislature. The first was to be a measure of his popular appeal, the second a measure of his political abilities--and both were a test of his political power.
He has lost the first battle, and stands to lose the second as well. Smith's addition to an already formidable Republican Senate caucus doesn't really make that much of a difference to the strength of the anti-gambling Maginot Line that is the Senate--but only because it was already so strong in the first place.
Ironically, the Beshear loss in the 30th district will probably have more influence in the House. Even though the Democrats won the two House races yesterday, they have to be looking at the Senate and wondering what exactly is in it for them to stick their necks out when they know the bill is dead on arrival in the Senate.
Their pro-casino resolve can't be helped by the fact that a lack of a gambling bill a third of the way through the session has resulted in absolutely no momentum for the cause.
Does anyone remember the 2002 General Assembly session, when by this time of the session the voters had been softened up by several month's worth of pro-gambling television commercials? But this time, the casino industry has for some reason decided against an air war, and is waiting for a ground assault that so far has not come.
The industry still has enough money to do some mischief. Even the real Maginot Line was breached after all. But every day the now politically crippled administration dawdles makes it more likely that it will be viewed as politically ineffective.
David Williams is the one popping the champagne corks now.
